Selamat tinggal 2009 dan Selamat datang 2010

Kedah maju 2010...aku pun nak maju juga tahun nie....tirai 2009 sudah berlabuh, sblm tu 1430 juga telah 15 hari berlalu...

Kedatangan 1431 dan juga 2010 disambut berselang 15 hari.....Harapan aku tahun ini akan membawa lebih banyak kejayaan kpd diri aku sendiri dan rakan2 yg lain....

InsyaAllah, aku akan revise sedikit blog ini....may be result daily performance akan aku masukkan ke sini dan artikel2 akan aku post di sebelah....dan juga akaun ke 2 akan menyusul utk teknik2 bodo aku....cuti 2 hari ni aku akan buat semua tu....

InsyaAllah...

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Akaun salah seorang trader komuniti nie..

Ni akaun salah seorang trader bawah group ni.....Buka akaun 24.11.09.. Read more...

Latest pair daily range

Ni latest punya pair range dan juga comparison antara 2008 & 2009.....sapa2 yg suka pair yg volatile leh la trade EUR/NZD...nampaknya pair ni lagi ganas dr GBP/JPY....
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3 days result - 10.7%

Alhamdulillah....test drive ok gak....walaupun dgn lot yg kecil (1/10 drp yg sepatutnya)...mampu juga profit 10.7% dlm 3 hari....mcm biasa, target 2.5% sj daily....syukur dpt lebih dr 2.5% .....leh la utk cover new year ni sebab public holiday...

Reason aku trade ni pun sebab x nak skill tu ilang...sebab tu aku ttp trade juga dgn lot yg kecil....Alhamdulillah semakin dpt improve disiplin aku....

Bukan senang nak mantain disiplin ni...kalau x continue dgn praktis yg berkekalan mmg susah nak bentuk diri kita sendiri..

cam biasa, result click kat atas tue...

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5 tips to improve forex trading

On this quiet trading day devoid of any market moving U.S. data, we take this opportunity to share some tips that we have to help you improve your forex trading. Regardless of whether you are learning to trade for the very first time or seasoned, we hope that you find these tips useful. Feel free to add your own tips in our comment section!

TIP #1 Buy High and Sell Higher

Believe it when they say that the trend is really your friend. When you trade currencies, you are trading the outlook of a country and typically the economy of a country will get progressively better or progressive worse and rarely will it be better one minute and worse the next. This is why trends are so dominant in the forex market. For example, take the performance of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar. In 2008, the Australian dollar fell for 5 months straight against the greenback in a move that shaved more than 35 percent off the value of the Aussie. However almost as quickly as the Aussie sold off in 2008, in 2009 it appreciated by approximately the same amount over the course of 9 months. Trends in currencies can last for weeks, months and in some cases, even years. Therefore by buying high and selling higher or shorting low to buy back lower, you put yourself on the side of the trend which should help to improve your trading. People who fight the tape on the other hand could be extremely frustrated if they try to do this with currencies.

TIP # 2 Entries and Exits are Equally Important

Ask a pilot what is more important – the takeoff or the landing and ask a surgeon whether it is more important to get the first incision or the sutures right and they will most likely tell you that both are important. Traders should have the same mentality when it comes to entries and exits. Unfortunately most new and even seasoned traders spend hours looking for trading strategies that give them the best possible entries. Exits however are usually relegated to nothing more than an afterthought. This type of behavior is one of the single biggest reasons why many people have difficulty making money from trading. In fact I am sure that everyone reading this article had the experience of watching their trades move favorably initially only to reverse violently and be stopped out. This is the central reason why exits are just as important as entries especially when you are trying to capture a big move. This is why it may be fruitful to employ the use of trailing stops because if you are aiming for a 5 percent move, the worst thing that could happen is for the trade to move 4 percent in your favor and then turn around. By using trailing stops, you can lock in profits along the way which is essential to maintaining a positive edge.

TIP # 3 Look Beyond 2:1 Risk Reward Ratios

Trading or investing 101 states that in order to profit in the long run, you have to maintain a 2 to 1 reward to risk ratio. This means that for every $1 that you risk, you should look to make at least $2. Unfortunately in the forex market, this may be difficult to achieve, particularly for short term traders. Let us consider a short trader who is looking to make 20 pips on a trade. If he was to maintain 2:1 risk / reward ratio, his stop would need to be 10 pips. However 10 pips is just little bit more than the spread for many currency pairs which means that the risk of being stopped out is very high. Alternatively if a trader knows that “support” is 50 pips away from the current price, then to maintain a 2:1 ratio, he would need to have a take profit of 100 pips. Given that 100 pips is typically the average high to low range of a currency pair, it may be difficult to make100 percent of an intraday move on a short term trade. A 1 to 1 risk reward ratio can also work as long as the strategy has an accuracy rate of 65 percent or greater which tends to be a bit more suitable for short trading. For example if you putting on a momentum trade after an economic release, your target and your stop may only be 20 pips because you are looking for immediate continuation. However in order for this to yield net positive results, you would to make sure that you are right much more often than you are wrong.

TIP # 4 Techncials and Fundamentals Both Matter

Many currency traders focus primary on chart reading because it is simple and straightforward and they believe that everything is factored into the price. This may be true to some extent and I believe that technical analysis is useful, particularly on a short basis, trading solely on charts is akin to walking around with blinders on. Fundamentals not only determine the current trend in exchange rates, but for any major technical trend to change, fundamentals need to change as well. On a more granular level, day to day economic data can also alter the short term trend in a currency pair or trigger a breakout. So it is extremely important for people employing technical analysis to be aware of economic data that will be released so that you can properly assess the risks to your trade.

TIP # 5 Do Your Homework

Finally, it is important to do your due diligence not only in terms of the trading strategies that you learn but also in terms of the brokers that you choose to trade with. One of the biggest benefits of the foreign exchange market is the ability to test drive strategies on virtual demo accounts. Make sure you can make money on the strategies while trading on a demo or a small sized account before diving head in. In terms of brokers, make sure that you are test out a number of brokers before you commit to one of them so that you can compare their services and pricing to see who really has the highest integrity. Read more...

Brapa % dr trade kita sebenarnya yg perlu profitable..

I often hear beginning traders speak as if they know what the markets will do next. In reality, experienced traders usually speak in probabilities and typically have some form of analysis to back up their opinion. No one can say that a particular currency pair (or other financial instrument) will move to an exact point with absolute certainty. In fact, I feel it is naive to think that anyone can predict the direction of a currency pair with absolute certainty over a given period of time. Sure, sometimes you could be correct if you boldly predict that a pair will move to X level with absolute certainty. However, there will be other times when the market doesn't go your way. That is why we must deal with probabilities, because no one knows for sure what will happen next in a given currency pair.

The reason we can never know where a currency pair with absolutely certainty is that the markets move based on the will of every market participant. Let's suppose that someone stated "the EUR/USD will definitely rise to point X, before falling down to point Y". They are saying that know exactly what every market participant (or trader) is thinking, how each of these participants plans to act, and how each participant will respond to the actions of every other participant. Needless to say, no one could ever have that information.

However, it isn't uncommon to see bold predictions that definitively state which direction a currency will pair and exactly where the move will begin and end. No one can know these types of moves for certain. Even worse, it isn't hard to find predictions that say something like "buy the USD/JPY at X or you'll be sorry." This gived virtually no useful information because we don't have any idea how long of a trade this would be or where the exits (stop and limit(s)) are. Without being too harsh, just beware of anyone who claims they know for certain where a currency pair is headed. Of course everyone can be entitled to their opinion, but that doesn't mean they "know" what will happen next.

Even if an insider were to know about an interest rate change ahead of its release, that doesn't mean they can predict exactly how the market can act. What if the interest rate briefly rises the pair into massive stop-sell orders that actually moves the market down for the day? What if enough market participants felt the rate would move higher, so the pair moves lower? There are endless scenarios, but it is virtually impossible to predict how every market participant will act within a constantly changing market.

Therefore, we must think in probabilities. No matter how sensational your analysis is, sometimes you will simply be on the wrong side of the market. Whether you are looking at fundamental news announcements, a combination of of technical tools, or a simple moving average, what traders are looking for are patterns that put the probabilities in their favor so they will profit in the long run. In other words, they are looking for how the market has reacted in the past to certain conditions, and speculating how likely the market will react in the future to similar conditions.

Regardless of the tools you use to analyze the market, you are still working with probabilities. If you find a system that is profitable over a long period of time, that system is likely putting the probabilities on your side. These systems come in a variety of shapes and sizes. Some traders (like the famous Turtles), lost far more trades than they won. However, when they won, they usually won big. Some traders try to win the vast majority of their trades while risking a lot, but gaining little. Of course there are all sorts of variations and methods besides those two examples.

For the purpose of easy math, we will assume that only T1 is used on the system I use on FX360.com. This system requires 40% of trades to reach T1 in order to break even. The reason for this is because the risk:reward ratio is generally 1:1.5. Therefore, if I win only 50% of my trades, I would be extremely profitable over time. Even winning 45% of my trades would lead to great returns. Anything above 50% wins would be outstanding. Therefore, it is plain to see that it is not necessary to know where the market will go on each individual trade. Instead, it is important to have a system that puts the odds in your favor over a large sample size of trades.

Based on these simple statistics, it is pretty easy to see why I don't get very excited when a trade wins or very upset when a trade loses. As long as the probabilities continue to hold over a long period of time, the individual results for each trade are almost meaningless. I lose trades all the time and so does every other trader. The key is to manage those losses correctly so that the long term track record is profitable. The bottom line is that thinking of trading in terms of probabilities is a key step to becoming a successful trader.

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Daily range for currency

Salam,

Gambarajah diatas adalah daily range utk pair2 yg kebiasaanya ada dlm platform kita. Nampaknya GBP/AUD adalah yg plg byk movement berbanding pair2 yg lain. Data ini dr tahun 2008 hingga bulan April 2009...

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Test drive akaun baru...

Start trade kecil2an utk akaun baru ni just utk ambik feel....result kat sebelah... Read more...

Kenapa perlu ada trading Plan

A trading plan is a must. I would be will to bet that virtually all successful traders have one. However, most new traders have no plan. In fact, I bet most new traders barely even have actual reasons for entering a trade. Imagine that you are planning to loan money to a new business as an investment. Could you picture yourself lending money to this person if they had no business plan and said they were going to start their business based on "their gut"? Of course a person would never be able to start a business by relying only on their gut. However, plenty of new traders start trading in exactly that manner.


Creating a trading plan is actually relatively easy. There are several core requirements that make up the plan. In my opinion, the main components of a trading plan are:
Trading objective (goals). What and when to trade. Money management. The edge (trading strategy that puts the probabilities in your favor or a long sequence of trades). Documentation and analysis of the results.

First, we have to define our trading objectives. Why are you trading? What is your end goal? Most new traders have completely unrealistic goals. For instance, a new trader might wan their $10,000 investment turn into $100,000 in their first year. While this is possible, it is highly improbable. These unrealistic expectations kill off a lot of traders before they ever had a chance. I think breaking even in the first year is an admirable goal; many traders do not do that. If a trader makes 20-30% on their initial investment in their first year, that is outstanding.

Next, we have to determine the basic outline of how to get there. What currency pairs (or other financial instruments) will you trade? This sounds simple, but it is easy to get off track by not defining this. I am in favor of utilizing as many pairs as you can comfortably manage, but I would not waste time with illiquid, choppy pairs. Other traders love choppy pairs. It's up to you. You also have to determine when you will trade and how often you will trade. Are you going to be a day trader or hold positions for a longer period of time? Your schedule and responsibilities may have some impact on that. But it is important to define these basic ideas to begin to form some consistency.

Money management is probably the most important aspect of trading. Would you rather have a fund manager who was a great analyst, but used poor money management? Or would you rather have a manager who was an average analyst, but used perfect money management? I think the answer is obvious. Even the best analyst will eventually blow out their account if they don't manage their risk properly. First, you need to determine how much risk capital you have to fund you account. Then you must determine how much you will risk on each trade. Most traders risk 1-3% of their account balance on each trade. This may sound low to the inexperienced, but after you blow our your account while risking too much, you will see why 1-3% is appropriate. It is also important to determine what your minimum risk:reward ratio will be. This could vary based on your overall trading strategy. Then calculate what your break-even winning percentage is. For instance, if your minimum risk:reward ratio is 1:2, you must win one out of three trades to break even.

Along with money management, it is vital to have an "edge". An edge puts the probabilities in your favor and allows you win more than you lose in the long run. Without an edge that makes you money over time, proper money management will only delay the inevitable as your account dwindles. There are many different methods to acquire this edge, but it is important to find one that is compatible with you. Also, back-testing may offer some help in determining an edge, but I think its value is overvalued. I think the true test of an edge is actually using it for future to trades, which will expose flaws in your execution of the strategy that back-testing won't.

The final step is to keep track of your results. I typically have a spreadsheet that has the following fields at the top of the page:
Date Symbol (e.g.- EUR/USD) Action (buy or sell) Lots (how many lots were bought/sold) Risk (in dollars) Profit potential (in dollars; you need one column for each profit target you have in your strategy) Result (profit/loss in dollars) Equity (account balance after the trade has closed) Notes (to keep track of anything I want to remember about this trade)

This format makes tracking results very simple. Please notice I track everything in dollars because that is true unit of measure, not pips. This format also makes it very easy to plot your account equity curve on a chart. There are a ton of statistics we can draw from this information that would take too long to write on this feature. However, the biggest perk of tracking your trades is that you look at the big picture. If you don't write down this information, you will weight the past 3 trades very heavily and maybe be able to remember the past 10 trade results (but I doubt it). This spreadsheet will allow you to identify problems with your overall plan and trading strategy so you can fix them.

This is a pretty basic start to having a trading plan. Experienced traders know that many more details are eventually inserted into this template to prevent mistakes and encourage good habits. However, I feel the above is the bare minimum required to developing a viable trading plan.

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Demo Account Vs Real Account

Today we will discuss why your results in your demo account will probably contrast sharply with the results in your live account. When most people start trading, they believe their results trading with fake money will be the same as their results trading with real money. Of course, that is almost never the case. The reason for this is that a person's emotions greatly impact their decision making ability when real money is on the line. We will go over why this is, and we will go over some tips for blurring the line between demo accounts and live accounts.

First off, I want to point out that I am not slamming demo trading. Trading a demo is how everyone should learn the basic mechanics of the trading platform. It also allows people to practice following their strategy and practice entering orders. If a trader goes in a slump, it can be effective to switch to the demo for a while. When a trader is in a slump, their brain is so focused on the money they are losing that they make mistakes left and right. Switching to demo relieves this pressure and reminds the trader that they still know how to trade well. The demo is also good for working on new strategies without risking money. However, the demo results usually do not translate to live money results.

To begin with, there is one basic reason the demo seems "easier" to trade. The reason is that you can have your fake cash refilled at any time. Therefore, what is the risk? There is no risk. If you screw up, then you can start over without any penalty. This takes a tremendous amount of pressure off of you. You could blow out 5 accounts and win big on one, but that doesn't mean you will ever be able to repeat that one big winning account again. This is the first aspect of the demo to realize, but there are far more important factor than this.

Let's say we have moved passed the obvious reason above that the demo isn't a 100% forecaster of live results. Let's say that you have some idea what you are doing, utilize proper risk management, have a strategy that gives you an edge, and have attained consistent results on your demo. The reality is that it is much easier to follow those guidelines when there is no real money involved. A trader's emotions are much stronger when trading with real money than on the demo. If you don't believe me, I doubt you have traded real money for very long. With real money you will be tempted to commit a number of trading sins: moving your stop farther away from the entry, exiting a position before it hits your profit targets, entering a trade that doesn't fulfill your criteria to get "revenge" after a prior loss, etc. I could go on forever with these mistakes, and you probably have plenty of your own that you could list.

So how do you make your results with real money resemble your results on the demo account? The first is to start trading with small positions of real money. Do not jump straight into risking what you think you should normally risk. If you are trading very small positions, you will not devastate your account, but you will learn what mistakes you make when you switch to live money. Even though you may be risking small amounts of money on each trade, your brain will work very differently than when you are operating on the demo.

Once you start making mistakes with real money as described above, take notes on what happened. Write down the mistake, what your mindset was, why you did what you did, and why what you did was wrong. The next step is to write down a solution to this problem. This will allow you to had valuable "rules" to your trading plan that will help protect you from your own emotions. In my opinion it is difficult (if not impossible) to correct these mistakes before you actually feel the pain of losing real money due to the mistake (even if it is a small amount risked on each trade).

Continue this process until you become more consistent in following your plan. Of course, you will never eliminate new mistakes entirely, but this process will help you become much more consistent in actually following your plan and not deviating from your strategy. This may be a brief explanation of how to bridge the gap between live and demo accounts, but I want to reemphasize how important it is to start by risking very small amounts of real money. Don't trade the demo forever because there is only a certain level of expertise you can gain from the demo. Trade the demo until you have a basic trading plan (with a strategy and money management) that you feel comfortable executing. At that point, trade small positions of real money and you will be able to improve your trading skills much more quickly than if you only used the demo for months and months.

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Journey of new account 22.12.09

Akaun lama dah withdraw semua......InsyaAllah nanti dah cukup modal dan skill akan aku upgrade ke Standard account.....broker dah disable dan htr email suruh aku upgrade....

...akaun baru dah approved lama dah, mmg standby dr dulu sebab dah agak dah aku akan kena upgrade juga dan semalam siap depo....cuma dok pikir skrg nak trade atau nak start new year trus....

Depo USD1000
Bonus USD140
Total acc USD1140

Apa strategi nak guna erk....
Mcmana pulak dgn trading plan....????

Jab g la aku pikir tgk....nanti aku update balik...nak solat dulu la....

Anyway, wish me good luck....

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My Forex journey ended ???

Salam...

Tajuk ni mmg suprise gak....hu hu hu...actually ended for this year la.....sebab? Tgk kat daily performance....

Dan juga akaun aku kena disable.....hajat dihati nak cover la mana yg aku tak dapat mggu lepas....tapi hari ini pulak terlanggar pantangnya....so sblm lebih parah, baik aku stop dulu...nanti lagi parah jadinya...Syukurlah aku masih boleh mengawal emosi dan ketamakkan aku lagi...

So, esok kena bermula dgn akaun baru.....aku decided simpan dulu semua profit dan mula balik dgn akaun baru dgn capital USD1k semula....tengoklah mcm mana esok, nak mula trade akaun baru atau just relax dulu hingga tahun depan.....ha ha ha, dgr mcm lama aku nak bersara tp maklumlah skrg bulan 12 dah.....rasanya masa utk aku rehat sampai new year kot. Tp kalau akaun baru siap esok, may be trade kecil kecilan supaya tak hilang skill tu....

Apa2 pun kena tggu akaun baru approved dulu la....

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Apakah yg menggerakkan price?

Today I will go over what I think drives price movement in the markets, why I hold these beliefs, and why I think it is important to understand the forces in price movement. Keep in mind the following theories are my opinions, not absolute fact. I believe in technical analysis much more than fundamental analysis, which will be reflected in this feature. There are people out there that will probably disagree with some of my statements below, which is fine. However, it is my hope that this information will provide value for our readers and at least make people think.



People often ask "did fundamentals trump technicals on that trade?" or something along those lines. No offense to anyone out there, but that is a ridiculous question. There are not two boxers names "fundamental analysis" and "technical analysis" slugging it out for trading supremacy. Sometimes a major news announcement will shoot the price past a strong technical level, but that's why I don't enter trades right before a major news announcement. How do we measure "fundamentals" though? Does that mean an announcement today, the overall economic scope of a country over the past century, or something in between?

The reality is that the only force that moves prices in any market is the buying and selling of the financial instrument. For our purposes, we will use currency trading as an example, but this is true in all liquid, openly traded markets. Currency prices don't fluctuate on their own. They only move up when traders are willing to buy at a price higher than the current price, and the only move down when traders are willing to sell at a lower price. That sounds incredibly simple, but this is a very important fact to establish.

The reason it is important to determine that traders move the market, is that this means no one can predict exactly where the market will go. Only probabilities at certain ranges can be determined, and usually the probabilities aren't overwhelming (they don't need to be). So the next time you hear someone say "XYZ is going to hit (black price) today!", take those predictions with a massive grain of salt. They are saying that they know exactly what every trader is thinking, how much each of those traders will buy or sell, when they will buy or sell it, how the buying or selling of others will affect their own buying or selling, and how every trader will react to news announcements (both scheduled and unscheduled). Let's presume that some incredible genius figured out a way to create artificial intelligence that could solve each of those issues (and more I am leaving out). That model would assume that people are rational (like fundamental analysis does). Unfortunately, there is no limit to how irrational traders can act, individually and as a group. Therefore, it becomes obvious that no one person can ever know exactly where a price will go.

This seemingly endless list of variables, along with the irrational behavior of traders, is why I believe in technical analysis. Technical analysis uses various ratios and drawings that, in my opinion, are designed to measure the behavior of traders. We aren't trying to explain why they are doing what they do. As we discussed above, it is impossible to know what is going through every trader's brain. Instead, we are trying to determine certain levels where traders are more likely to act one way then another. With technical analysis, you can do basically the same thing every time. If you watch the patterns we post, they are basically the same patterns on different pairs every day. We try to eliminate as many random variables as we can. It is important to have a robust strategy, as we do, that works over all markets and all time frames. If a strategy only works on one financial instrument with one time frame, chances are that strategy won't work for long. After doing this, we can measure if we have an "edge" over a very large sample of trades. This isn't a guarantee that what once made money will always make money, but it is a lot better than nothing.

I am sure you can guess where this is going regarding fundamentals. Now there are different type of fundamental trading. If you trade based off of an announcement that came out today, that is very different from a trader who looks at long term macroeconomics. If you trade strictly off of new announcements, that is a steep uphill battle. First of all, there are a lot of people out there that think the markets move ahead of the news. I am one of them. Second, markets can gap immediately after news announcements and can really hurt your execution with every broker. Third, markets often don't react according the exact numbers released in these news announcements. This goes back to the fact that traders are irrational and you have no idea how they will perceive news announcements. This can lead to wild swings, moves opposite of what makes sense, and other crazy events.

So how can someone consistently profit over a long period of time (at least 100 trades) by looking at individual news announcements? You've got me. Even if a trader won at times, how can you be consistent when every reaction is so different? A trader who looks at the big picture over a longer period of time faces a similar problem. Sure, a currency may be "supposed" to move one way based on the economic measures a trader uses, but that only matters if traders buy or sell in that direction. How does this trader know that other traders will rationally interpret this information like he did? On top of that, one of my favorite trading quotations is "the markets can stay irrational much longer than your account can remain solvent." This means that the market could finally come around your way to the rational economic price, but you could already be knocked out by that point.

I could talk forever about this topic, but I will cut myself off for now. The point is that we don't know exactly why prices will move, where they will move, or why they moved where they did. That is why we take the approach of applying a consistent, technical method that has been tested over a long period of time. I will probably write a follow up at some point, because I have a lot more to say on this topic. Hopefully you enjoyed this article and it makes you think about the markets in a slightly different light.

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Trade during news - No Way Man....

I am a technical trader. Therefore, I don't place trades based on news announcements. I have various beliefs that my experiences have taught me regarding these announcements that have generally taught me the same lesson: stay away. I am discussing only major news announcements; I don't really pay any attention to the smaller announcements because they usually don't move the market much. Below I will go through why I avoid trading during major news and various strategies for dealing with news announcements. Remember that I trade a very specific way and I am not saying these announcements are not interpreted and used differently by others. But the below theories have proven to be useful when trading with geometric pattern recognition.


First off, I believe that news announcements are almost totally unpredictable. As you may know, there is usually a "forecast" and a "previous" number listed before the news announcement is made. The market's reaction is generally based on whether the actual announcement is higher or lower than the forecast. The problem is that this assumes all traders (or even most traders) react the same way to the relation between the actual number, the forecast, and the previous number. Even if we could correctly interpret this information, it is difficult to enter trades during these times because execution suffers within a fast moving market.

In my opinion, these releases have very few long term implications and are unpredictable in the short term. Of course, there are traders that may use these numbers to some degree of success, but I have never seen any strong evidence that you can profit while trading those numbers over the long term. Anyway, the one constant around major news announcements (such as non-farm payroll) is that there are rapid moves with above average magnitude. These moves can be very erratic. Sometimes the move is in one direction. Sometimes the move looks like it will be in one direction, and then moves back to the starting point just as rapidly.

Furthermore, these moves can be very irrational. Not only do they often ignore the logic of the news announcement itself, but these moves often ignore the logic of the technical analysis we post. It would be much easier to trade these announcements if traders were rational, but they aren't. Therefore, to me the most useful aspect of these major announcements is the time they take place. I then use the timing of these announcements to avoid placing trades right before them.

If a pattern has almost completed, there is no advantage to placing a trade immediately before or after a news announcement. Let's say that this trade is a long opportunity. Let's also say that the pair is just above the entry. If this is the case and the news makes the pair shoot up, then we never entered and there would be no trade. If the news makes the pair shoot down, then we will likely be stopped out. Therefore, we never would take this trade. Here is an USD/JPY trade that was in this exact situation. Now, this trade had already been invalidated as we wrote here . Look at the USD/JPY analysis and you will see what happens in this situation.

If the pattern is farther from completing, we still wait to enter until after the price action due to the news announcement has calmed down. If we have already entered a trade, we may close it before the news announcement comes out. This varies on a ton of different situations, which would be too long to write about on this article. For now, I could come up with theories on your own about this problem. At some point, I will probably write an entire article exclusively about that situation. Read more...

Kawal emosi kita - mcmana nak deal dgn drawdown?

Trading psychology is the most important aspect of a trader's success. This may surprise some readers, specifically those that are new to trading. However, the psychological makeup of a trader is more important than market knowledge, market analysis, and even money management. The reason psychology is so important is that even the best information can be distorted by a poor mindset.

Most new traders think the key to profiting in trading is knowing more about the market. For instance, most new traders clog their screens with every indicator they can find, read up on European GDP trends, and feel that pro traders have some sort of secret knowledge. However, this inevitably does not provide the lofty results the novice trader expects to achieve.
After realizing that excessive market information doesn't help (and may hurt) results, the next moment of truth most traders have is money management. Instead to trading 1 lot every time, or even trading the maximum lots their account will allow, these traders realize losses will happen no matter what. When you realize that everyone loses on occasion, it is easy to see why money management is necessary. This is a big step, but does not ensure success.

Now, don't get me wrong, you need to have some form of analysis and some form of money management to profit in the long term. In other words, you need an edge that when applied with proper money management leads to positive returns over the course of many trades. Great money management with no edge will only mean you lose your money more slowly. A great strategy without money management will lead to an inevitable blow up. However, without the proper mindset, it is nearly impossible to continue to get good results in the long

The bottom line is that a poor mindset can sabotage even the best trading strategy or money management strategy. I could write about this at great length, but we will look at one key example for now. The biggest test in trading psychology occurs during a drawdown. This occurs when a trader gets in a "slump" and has bad results for a given period of time. Usually the most devastating drawdowns eliminate a significant amount of a hard earned profit.

Keep in mind, draw downs are completely normal. Everyone has them on occasion. However, the key is reacting properly to drawdowns. This is why trading psychology is so important. The natural reaction during a drawdown is to change your strategy. Sometimes traders will even take trades for no reason whatsoever except for a desperate chance at a profit. Assuming you believe your methodology is sound, there is no reason to change anything during a drawdown. In fact, that is the most important time to follow the basics. Think about a baseball hitter in a slump. Sometimes they will change their stance, but usually they keep the same basic stance and swing. Instead, they focus on the fundamentals of keeping their head still, keeping their hands back, and so on. For some reason traders tend to panic in this situation and change everything up. This leads to a larger drawdown, which usually ends when the trader reverts back to their primary strategy.

In conclusion, the steps above illustrate the general process a trade takes on the road to achieving consistent results. Virtually all traders only become successful after they able to put together a strategy that gives you an edge, money management, and proper trading psychology.

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Peringatan kpd trader, part time atau Full time

Aku copy paste dr CG yg di copy paste dr FF, buat renungan semua. Jgn sampai jadi begini...


A Cautionary Tale

I took my first step along the hard road of trading some 3 years ago now.
Like many others before me, I thought that I'd crack it in a year or so.
Like many others before me, I learned the hard and humbling truth that trading is anything but a quick route to fortune and glory.

A hundred dead ends followed a hundred 'systems'; indicators came and went with an almost dizzying speed; guru's were eagerly sought and their advice followed-but only their bank balances grew(at my expense).
As my skills grew, painfully slowly, I encountered the 'elephant in the room' that is capitalization. The withering disappointment of realizing that becoming a proficient trader was not going to be enough, and that you needed to become a proficient trader WITH a bundle of cash already in place to stand any chance, was a heavy blow.
But still, I persevered.
At each and every juncture, whenever the scale of the challenge seemed to grow larger, I stepped up to the plate by working and learning harder and harder and harder.
Each and every hard knock and dead end was met by a determined response of more work, longer hours, and increased determination.
I eulogized about reaping the rewards tomorrow from the efforts of today.
From originally trading through purely the London market hours, I continued on through New York.
From originally finishing on a Friday, I immersed myself in additional studies throughout the weekend.

And it came.

For the most part slowly, and, very occasionally in 'eureka' moments.
I realized one day that I could trade at breakeven or better consistently.
This drove me forwards even harder. I threw every waking moment into learning and practicing. I worked harder than I had ever done in my entire life. And I'm 48 years old.
Wading through a blizzard of 'systems' and 'methods', I started to realise that my 'Edge'(if that's what you call it) was not a result of any tricksy indicators or EA's, but rather was me, myself. I had, without realizing it, gradually changed my relationship with my charts, from being one where I looked for signals and triggers, to one where I, and this is still hard to explain, followed the flow, heard the song, perhaps even understood the story to some small degree.

3 years down the line, at long last, I now believe I have enough understanding and skill to stay alive in this business, and to support my family and myself.

Excepting one thing.

When I turned around, after 3 years of complete immersion in what I was doing, I discovered I no longer had a family.
4 weeks ago they left me.
My beautiful partner and my two gorgeous boys-gone.
Tired of a relationship with an obsessive who rarely ventured out of his study. Weary of the constant promises of a brighter tomorrow. Worried sick by the financial ramifications of no income for nearly 3 years.
Bored of a man who had seemingly forgotten what his priorities should have been.
Gone.

So, just remember people.
Life is what exists away from your screens.
The siren song of a brilliant life tomorrow will always seek to draw you back to your desk.
Learn from my mistake.
Look after those you love first.
Then trade with what's left.

Peace.

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Daily result

Alhamdulillah....lepas kodek2 dlm tenet, dan terpegun dgn blog Jaing dan Dinda Umie dgn bantuan member2 CG (Dinda Umie, Kurma, Bizzclub, dan Sifu aku) dpt juga aku make up sikit blog nie....penat gak tp syok sebab buat sendiri...Thanks to all my fren...including trader2 komuniti ni yg tlg bagi review ...Salman, firdaus, meor,one dan anin/mila....

Aku dah organize sket blog ni...kat sini aku cuma akan post ckp2 merapu aku shj, utk daily result klik la kat atas tu....aku link ke satu lagi blog supaya lebih organize...

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Tolong ikut training program

Aku amat berharap semua trader komuniti ni dpt ikut apa yg telah ditetapkan semasa training. Pleaseeeee.....

Aku x mau hangpa jadi perogol pip....faham kot maksud aku.

Kan aku dah cakap, analogi utk training ni mcm hangpa tackle awek la juga. Takkan kenal sehari terus nak kahwin kot....perangai awek tu pun hangpa x tau lagi, trus nak kahwin...(Lot besaq)

Lagi teruk baru kenal terus hangpa rogol dia...kalau polis tangkap masuk lokap (rugi arr)...huhu...kena yg mak bapak dia samseng mampuih hangpa...terus kena bunuh...(MC la tu)...

So... Please ingat pesanan aku, dah tak larat nak berleter...nanti hangpa panggil aku mak nenek pulak kalau kuat berleter....

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Plan untuk 3rd week December

Untuk 3rd week of December, aku akan doublekan lot size setelah comfortable dgn sistem ini. Ini bermakna aku perlukan less 50% drp pip yg aku buat pada minggu lepas.

Lot size ini akan mantain sehingga end dec 2009. Bermula Januari, lot size akan ditambah 0.5% lagi dan ini adalah final target sehingga seterusnya.

Berdasarkan trading plan ini, akaun akan mencecah USD4000 pada penghujung Januari. So bermula dr Februari withdrawal akan dibuat sebanyak USD500/week.

Harap2 aku success dgn plan ini...

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Apa kaitan Money Management dan Teknik

Semua traders di sarankan agar menggunakan MM yg betul. Tetapi apakah MM itu sendiri yg sebenarnya?

Bagi aku, money management berkait rapat dgn teknik yg digunakan dan skill yg ada pada traders. Kenapakah sesetengah trader menggunakan lot yg besar walaupun modalnya tidak mengizinkan....kalau dengar mmg hancur MM nya, tp dia success...

Ianya berkait rapat dgn teknik dan skill yg ada. Skill hanya blh di asah drp praktis yg banyak....jadi tentulah perlukan satu teknik yg menghasilkan profit yg konsisten tanpa float yg byk....

1. Perlu ada teknik yg proven profitable dgn minimum drawdown (float)

2. Praktis praktis praktis sampai lebam

3. Praktis pula perlukan jadual berkala

Analoginya :

Sebelum berkahwin, apa kita buat.

1. Kenal pasti org yg kita nak jadikan future wife

2. Mula2 berkenalan (ada mcm2 kaedah)

3. Eratkan silaturrahim (sms, call, email dsb)

4. May be dating dulu kot

5. Lepas 1 tempoh, may be htr rombongan merisik.

6. Bertunang

7. Kahwin

Analogi yg sama perlu di terapkan dlm fx learning ni...

InsyaAllah success...

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Closed 2nd week of December - Alhamdulillah profit

Alhamdulillah...2nd week of Dec close with profit. Dpt cover balik semua hari2 yg aku tak trade.

Total akaun now USD1942.89 Vs USD1937.62 (plan after 9 days). Extra USD5.27 than plan.

Total trade todate 217 trade. 5 lost (2.3%) and 212 profit (97.7%). Syukur Alhamdulillah...

Profit to lost = 97.7 : 2.3

InsyaAllah next week berjuang lagi...

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1st week december result

Result utk 1st week Dec secara keseluruhan kurang memberangsangkan kerana aku behind by USD68.34 . Sepatutnya accumulate USD aku ialah USD1739.87 berbanding cuma USD1671.53.

Walau bagaimanapun aku x risau sgt kerana masih ada byk masa utk nak cover semula. Memandangkan pd mggu ke 2 ini juga aku tidak menumpukan masa kpd trading krn ada urusan luar, aku jangka kan performance minggu ini juga mungkin akan ada sedikit pengurangan....

InsyaAllah ada masa terluang aku trade sikit2...

Week Plan Actual Variance Acc Var

1st USD158.2 USD68.34 USD89.86 USD89.86

2nd USD197.75

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Memandangkan byk pertanyaan ttg cara utk masuk ke komuniti ini, disini aku berikan skype ID org yg bertanggungjawab utk membuat penapisan kemasukan ke dlm komuniti ini. Seperti yg aku maklumkan dahulu, semuanya kerana syarat2 yg telah di perketatkan kerana beberapa insiden yg berlaku...

Jadi sebarang pertanyaan bolehlah di ajukan kepada org yg bertugas...

skype id : pemantau

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Accepting the risk in our trade

Trading psychology is the most important aspect of a trader's success. I have made this statement before, but it is worth repeating. There are many factors that contribute to a trader's psychological makeup, and there is no easy way to attain a trader's mindset. However, there are certain factors that influence a trader's psychology that are important to be aware of. Several weeks ago we published a feature that covered how a trader should deal with a drawdown ( Trading Psychology- Dealing with a Drawdown ). That feature discussed the psychological implications of losing over a series of trades. Today's topic, accepting risk, pertains to individual trades rather than a long string of trades.

The best traders typically are the most consistent traders. In order to be a consistent trader, it is important to consistently apply one's methodology to the market and make as few errors as possible. A trading error is when a trader deviates from their methodology. Common errors include taking a bigger loss than planned, exiting a trade earlier than planned, taking a trade that does not fit the trader's usual criteria, or passing on a trade that fit the trader's usual criteria. These errors can be destructive to a trader's capital and sanity.

Trading errors are usually induced by emotions caused by previous trades. The most dangerous emotional catalyst (in my opinion) occurs when a trader loses a trade they felt was a certain winner. After losing this trade, a trader feels sad, angry, or even vengeful against the market. This causes a trader to enter a trade irrationally in order to win back what they felt they were cheated out of. Of course, this trade usually is a loser. If it wins, this can be even worse, because it encourages this type of decision making in the future, which could lead to even larger losses.
In my opinion, the reason the aforementioned scenario is common among traders is that they did not accept the risk when they placed the trade. They thought the trade was a sure winner, so it was miserable to take the trade as a loss. In fact, traders may even refuse to take their loss because they were so sure it was a winner, which can lead to devastating losses. This is why traders must accept the risk of each trade before they enter their position. In other words, a trader must view the amount of money they are risking as an expense to see if their trade idea will work. Once a trader accepts the risk, they will typically feel far less distress if the trade does indeed lose.

Accepting the risk of each trade is not easy, especially for inexperienced traders. Of course, there are some steps we can take to make it easier to accept the risk. First, it is very important to plan out each trade. This means we should know where we will enter the trade, place our stop, and place our take profit level(s). That way there are no decisions that need to be made once the position is entered. The human brain will view information differently once that position is entered and it thinks much more clearly before the position is entered. Additionally, if we know the distance between the entry and the stop, we know exactly how much capital we are risking. This is important because it is impossible to accept a risk when we do not know how large the risk is. After entering the pre-planned trade, emotion is inevitable, but at least it won't impact the result of the trade.

As we said earlier, a trader must view the amount of money they are risking as an expense to see if their trade idea will work. Every trader has losses. However, consistent traders view losses as business expenses. Losses are a necessary aspect of trading, and there is no way to know which trades will win or which will lose when the trade is entered. Therefore, if we can accept the risk of each trade before placing it, these losses can more easily be viewed as part of trading rather than a personal attack from the market. Once a trader learns to accept the risk on every trade and concede they don't know which trades will win, it will be much easier to control one's emotions and achieve consistent results.

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2nd December 2009

Hari ni x berapa cun....time aku masuk, market mmg mandom sgt...setelah 2 jam depan PC, aku decide x trade sebab x dapat entry yg cantik....hu hu hu..kena tggu esok la pulak utk trade....Insyaallah kalau ada peluang blh cover utk hari ni...

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Alhamdulillah...1st Dec met daily target.....2.5% from capital dgn max drawdown -10 pip......ermmm...yg ni yg kurang memuaskan sebab biasa dok mantain below -5....

Then buat 1/2 profit untuk Friday ni, sebab Friday x blh nak trade sebab ada urusan keluarga di KL.....2nd Dec buat 1/2 profit lagi utk Friday + daily target.

Group ni melangkah ke next step sebab sebahagian besar dah boleh live trade secara on line dan mencapai profit yg di kehendaki. Bolehlah kurangkan live trade secara face to face yg mana advantage utk aku sebab aku pun sama2 blh trade akaun aku....jimat masa beb...

Tambahan pula Masta kami pun sama2 dlm chat room utk guide, pastu hilang seketika kononnya nak tido, then masuk balik ckp dah cukup daily target. Yg ni aku belum mahir lagi, daily target sama, 2.5% drp capital tp dia blh buat dlm masa 1/2 jam. Aku perlu 2 jam....reason, sebab aku tak ikut lot size yg sebenarnya lagi, masih lagi 20% shj dr yg sepatutnya.

Anyway, TQ Masta and team. Enjoy to be a part of our successful community.

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