Saturday, January 16, 2010

Eur/Jpy



There is a bullish Gartley pattern forming on the EUR/JPY 4hr Chart. We have extended CD to 127.2% of AB because there were relatively long bars in the CD leg. The trade has almost completed. The pattern has excellent price symmetry and is very close to completing with good time symmetry. We have also drawn a short term bearish channel on the 30min Chart. The idea is that if the pair reacts off the Gartley and breaks up out of the channel, then we could see a quick rise.

We are looking to buy the EUR/JPY if the pair falls to 130.11 (Point D). Point D is located at the convergence of the following levels:

61.8% Fibonacci retracement of XA. 161.8% Fibonacci extension of BC. AB=CD. Possible breakout of short term bearish channel.

We will now go over what to watch for assuming the EUR/JPY continues falling toward our entry at 130.11. The trade is invalid if the pair rises above 131.35 before hitting our entry. Otherwise, the trade is so close to entering that there are no other invalidation criteria.

To recap, we will look to buy the EUR/JPY at 130.11 with our stop placed at 129.29. Our initial profit targets are 131.35 (38.2% of CD) and 132.22 (61.8% of CD).



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